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What does the future hold for Calgary's real estate market in 2024?

Friday, February 9, 2024   /   by Chris Matlashewski

What does the future hold for Calgary's real estate market in 2024?


Calgary's real estate market has seen its fair share of ups and downs. Through data visualization and trend analysis, we are painting a picture of what 2024 holds for buyers and sellers alike. 

Here are the main talking points in this Forecast  

1 Economic Variables
2 Styles of homes
3 Price and Segments of Homes 
4 Anticipated Growth,  
5 Surrounding Areas (Airdrie, Cochrane, Okotoks and Chestermere) 
6 Assessing what city- Edmonton or Calgary should you invest in 2024.  


Economic Variables: 

 

Rising lending rates have had a notable impact on the housing sector, prompting potential buyers to search for more affordable housing options. 

This has also caused some sellers to refrain from listing their homes to avoid the consequences of higher rates 

So, what is making Calgary Canada’s hotbed: strong migration growth a robust labour market, while international migration has influenced rental markets, resulting in increased rental gains and heightened demand from investors, interprovincial migration from higher-priced markets in British Columbia and Ontario has helped support sales growth in the higher price ranges of our market, even in the face of higher lending rates. 

Moving into 2024, we anticipate that potential buyers who were previously on the sidelines due to limited supply choices may reenter the market as lending rates ease and listings improve coupled with mortgages that were at historical lows will help with the supply constraints and the 3rd helper for Calgary’s supply issue will be new home supply. Don't expect supply levels to increase until later this year. This will be more evident in the higher priced home segment while entry level inventory will continue to remain tight. 

Migration- The interprovincial migration in 2024 is expected to slow compared to 2023, it is projected, Calgary’s population is forecast to grow 3.6% further fueling growth and limiting supply in Calgary. 



Economic indicators making our economy resilient
are Alberta's energy sector. Two federal environmental policies; net zero housing and emissions caps
could force a slowdown in Alberta. 

Investor Hotspot. Calgary continues to prove it is the right place for investors, as rental housing demand continues to remain strong. For developers this continues to be the area of interest to invest and provide housing for those in need. 

Recapping Calgary’s Residential Sales market in 2023 



Sales were d
own 8%, with listings also down 13% causing inventory to also be down 26% which ultimately forced the benchmark price up 6% year over year.... Now it's important to note that the apartment sector had and continues to have the best price performance out of single family, semi-attached and townhomes.
 
Single family homes continued to have the lion's share of sales at 46% With Apartment sales at 28%, townhomes at 16% and Semi-attached at 8% Affordability- Compared to Canada’s 2 largest centres, that being Toronto and Vancouver, Calgary’s Benchmark price is almost half of those cities. 


 

Styles of homes 

Single Family  


 
Benchmark Price- $675,000 up 7.64% year over year 
Expect this upward trend to continue in the lower priced single-family segment while slowing slightly in the higher end market as supply in higher priced homes. Anticipated growth in the single-family sector is 4.0% for 2024